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Towards the end of this year’s COP28, leaders revealed a new potential draft deal suggesting ways in which countries could slash greenhouse gas emissions — a critical piece of reducing humanity’s collective carbon footprint.
However, Reuters reports that the draft omitted the “phase out” of fossil fuels and many nations resist an end to the reliance on oil and coal. The move drew criticism from the U.S., E.U., and climate-vulnerable Samoa and Marshall Islands, which are already experiencing the social, environmental, and economic impacts of rising ocean levels.
"We cannot sign on to a text that does not have a strong commitment on phasing out fossil fuels," Samoa environment minister Cedric Schuster said at the conference.
The Stakes Have Never Been Higher
The concerns are serious. According to a report from the Asian Development Bank (ADP), the Pacific region could require up to $775 million, or 2.5% of the GDP to prepare for the worst effects of climate change, which includes loss of lives to natural disasters, crop losses, and forced migration.
“Our findings show that if not adequately addressed, climate change could overturn the region’s development achievements,” said Xianbin Yao, the Director General of ADP’s Pacific Department.
The fact is, countries are already experiencing the devastating social and economic effects of climate change — and, experts predict that as long as it goes unchecked, the problem will only get worse.
The world faces an unprecedented threat from climate tipping points. Per the recent Global Tipping Points report, these are critical thresholds that, if breached, could plunge ecosystems into irreversible collapse and trigger societal chaos. Understanding the magnitude of these tipping points is crucial, demanding immediate and concerted global action to avert catastrophic consequences.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change and Beyond
The Global Tipping Points report outlines pivotal natural thresholds at risk due to escalating global temperatures.
These include the collapse of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, permafrost thaw, coral reef degradation, the collapse of some fisheries, lake eutrophication, coral reef and mangrove die-off, and potential disruptions in oceanic currents, all of which could swiftly and irreversibly alter the planet's fundamental functions.
"Humanity faces devastating consequences if crucial climate tipping points are crossed," said professor Tim Lenton, from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the report.
Some of these tipping points, such as coral reefs and some ice sheets, could be very close to hitting the threshold. And, the report notes, some of these systems are interconnected – if one “tips” over, it could cause a cascade.
"They can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of entire ecosystems and the capacity to grow staple crops, leading to societal impacts such as mass displacement, political instability, and financial collapse,” Lenton added.
We Can’t Afford This
The economic impact of these tipping points is vast. An Amazon dieback could put 6 million people at risk of extreme heat stress and cause between $1 to $3.5 million USD in economic damages. Permafrost already damages property in nearby regions, and even more is at risk. Antarctic ice sheet instability may lead to a potential sea level rise of 2100, damaging coastlines and exposing 480 million people to annual flooding.
However, the report adds that more research is needed to better understand the implications, impacts, and losses caused by climate change. There are also large uncertainties about if and when the tipping points will collapse – but critical carbon sinks like mangroves, seagrass meadows, and boreal forests could be on the verge of a turn for the worse.
Conclusion
Breaching these thresholds could set off a chain reaction, affecting not only local ecosystems but also global systems essential for human survival.
Disruptions in ecosystems pose severe risks to water, food, energy security, health, communities, and economies. The potential fallout includes extreme heat stress threatening millions, colossal economic damages, sea-level rises exposing millions to coastal flooding, and global food security disruptions.
The urgency for immediate, comprehensive intervention to avert climate tipping points cannot be overstated, lest we face dire consequences, including economic collapse, mass displacement, and irreversible damage to ecosystems.
It’s imperative that corporations and business leaders understand the gravity of the situation and the imperative for immediate global cooperation and action to address the challenges posed by critical climate tipping points.
Sources
This article was originally published in Certainty News [link to article page]
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